Old and new kids on the block

There were a number of new parties in the South African election. Two of these were the Agang SA and the EFF. My personal view is that Dr Ramphele could have made a huge contribution to the polical life. The party in fact failed to do what they set out to do. They only got one seat in the National Assembly and now they (just like Cope did after the previous election) are fighting over the leadership. News.iafrica.comhttp://news.iafrica.com/sa/944293.html writes:

It emerged last week that the party's chairperson Mike Tshishonga and Ramphele had registered conflicting fraud cases with the police to ascertain who opened an account for the party to receive a R200 000 refund from the Independent Electoral Commission.

A sad story.

The other ”new kid on the block” is of course the EFF and their Commander in Chief, Julius Malema. In his response to President Zuma after the State of Nation Address he really managed to stir the feelings of the house. A number of times other MP’s protested  - as far as I understand on silly points. For instance when Malema did not say ’honourable’ Cyril Ramaphosa.

The EFF has found a vacuum to the left of the ANC. To the right is only the DA and a number of very small parties. The question is whether the EFF will convince the masses. Malema and his gang are dressed in working clothes but are they really revolutionary? I doubt it. Malema’s speech was good, but will the party make a difference in the Parliament? Listen to the speech here. 

Another series of events are possibly even more interesting. Taking place outside the parliament. South Africa has just seen the end of the longest strike ever. The one in the platinum mines. Over five months. And the back drop is the Marikana massacre. (Malema also mentioned this in his speech. Claiming quite frankly that the ANC-led government murdered those mine workers.

I have written about this before. The old union for Mine workers (NUM) was not behind this strike but the new union, Amcu, was. They are not loyal to the ANC. I presume most of them vote for the EFF. NUM is part of COSATU. Which is in a tripartite alliance with the ANC and the SACP (the South African Communist Party). It has always been a mystery to me, how the Communist party can support a government which is definitely not communist.

When the strike in the platinum field ended it didn’t take long for another union to declare that they also will go on strike. This time it is the metal workers union (NUMSA). It is part of the COSATU but very critical to the tripartite alliance. They say they will form another election alliance. Will it be with the EFF? If so we are going to see major changes in the upcoming municipal elections in 2016.

South African election, thumbies and GoogleDoodle

Seemingly the ANC is increasing slightly. Still, the party won’t get two thirds majority. And the DA will still be the runner up with the EFF as number three. Agang i guess didn't make it. As it looks right now a number of smaller parties, who are in the National Assembly today, will not remain there. Instead of 12 parties we are looking at 10. The most remarkable thing might be that the PAC (the liberation movement that organised the potest march in Sharpeville in 1960) won't make it. They have gone from 5 seats in 1994, via 3, 3, and 1 seat to possibly no seat at all. A bit sad, I think. If this result remains! Less than 50% of the votes are counted now.

I will not write more about this today as I am going to campus for lectures and some meetings. Tonight we have ‘graduation’ with the isiZulu class.

Let me just share two photos. The first is a thumb. It belongs to Chris Hendricks (I hope it is OK with you, Chris, that I publish it). 

Chris Hendrick's thumb!

You have heard about 'selfies' – photos that we take of ourselves and post on social media. The new word I learn is 'thumbie'. Reason being that every voter gets a little ink on the thumb. This is a way of showing:

I have cast my ballot.

The other phenomenon is a GoogleDoodle. This is obviously a big thing to get.

The US Embassy congratulated South Africa for getting
a GoogleDoodle yesterday. "The world is whatching ..."

Short-lived unity

It feels a bit sad. It was promising, that DA and AgangSA were going to cooperate. I strongly believe that South Africa needs a strong opposition. Anyhow: today we got the news that Mamphela Ramphele will go back to her own party and not be the presidential candidate of the DA. Helen Zille even says that Ramphele

... has proven she can’t be trusted ...

At least according to City Press.

Now it seems, at least in my view, that the biggest threat to the ANC will be Julius Malema and the EFF. That is not good news.

Ramphele for president

Breaking news this day. DA's Helen Zille announces that Dr Mamphela Ramphele stands as the presidential candidate for the DA. It is still too early to say what will happen with Agang SA. According to radio news (SAFM) today not all senior members of Agang are happy.

It is not the first time smaller parties join the DA. It happened to the Independent Democrats. Their leader, Patricia de Lille, is now the DA Mayor of Cape Town.

Whereas the ANC has seen many splinter groups (like PAC, UDM, Cope, EFF) it seems as if DA is working in another direction, drawing smaller groups into their sphere. Zille, Ramphele and de Lille are women. Zuma, Lekota and Malema are men – just to mention a few).

To be honest one has to mention that the National Party merged with the ANC after some years. And the IFP leader, Mangosuthu Buthelezi, became a minister in the ANC lead government. He is now talking to Malema. And Cope is talking with ACDP. It is not easy to understand. But it is interesting!

Read more one the websites of:

DA

Agang

Mail and Guardian

ANC under 50%?

An independent institute, Ipsos, has made a political survey in South Africa with interesting results. I have not seen many surveys before. This one was reported by TV the other day and the result, if general elections were to take place today, are the following (compared to 2008 and 2012)

A few things can be said about this:

1. ANC is decreasing and may have problems in achieving two thirds majority.

2. Only DA can compete with ANC.

3. EFF is more popular than Cope. (Which means that break aways from the ANC is more likely to succeed the first election after the break away. Look at UDM, which only holds one seat in the national assembly).

4. Agang has not managed to gather enough support.

Maybe others can get more information from the tables. News24 makes the following analysis:

Issues contributing to this include the Marikana shooting incident, the scandal around President Jacob Zuma’s R206m security upgrades to his Nkandla home in KwaZulu-Natal and to other ANC leadership issues.

It is going to be interesting. I don’t think the ruling party will fall under 50% but maybe get close.

ANC - watch out!

Regarding the elections in 2014, my belief is that the ANC is in for a hard time. Mandela is no present and the field is now wide open for people to vote according to their own conscious. This I have written before and already I see a number of signs that this is happening.

Ahmed Kathrada, one of Mandela’s fellow prisoners at Robben Island, spoke at Mandela’s funeral. I have not heard much of his speech. SABC and SAFM, the major TV and Radio broadcasters, are very loyal to the Government. But Kathrada did have some very serious things to say about the state of affairs, although he did it in a diplomatic manner. Times Live reports:

But perhaps the most powerful moment of all came when Kathrada, his voice quavering with grief, spoke of the gratitude South Africa should have for its "chapter nine" institutions, which safeguard democracy. Among these institutions is the office of the public protector, headed by Thuli Madonsela, which has been investigating the irregular expenditure of more than R200-million on Zuma's Nkandla estate. This line was not in his original speech.

It would have been interesting to have seen the face of Zuma when Kathrada said that.

So, I was quite surprised when I watched SABC 3 news tonight and they covered the NUMSA congress and the speech that suspended Cosatu General Secretary Zwelinzima Vavi held. He was received as a hero according to City Press. Cosatu says that he is not even allowed addressing any member union of the Cosatu. The interesting thing was how long part of the speech that SABC covered. He got almost a minute. That is quite a lot on TV. Just to recap: NUMSA is the largest trade union in Cosatu. Cosatu forms a tripartite alliance together with the ANC and the SACP (South African Communist Party). Vavi is not one of Zumas supporters. Cosatu has suspended him since he had an extra marital affair with an employee. Some analysts believe this was a political suspension. There is a rift in Cosatu and the group that is loyal to Zuma saw a chance to get rid of Vavi.

NUMSA, which is the union for metalworkers, has also opinions about the massacre at Marikana. They believe that it was planned and they blame, amongst others, Cyril Ramaphosa, vice president of the ANC and by many seen as the successor of Zuma. NUMSA also wants the National police commissioner, Riah Phiyega, to be suspended. According to BDLive NUMSA also wants Zuma himself to resign.

Another sign that ANC might get it tougher in the future is the new coalition: the Collective for Democracy. Although one of the five parties that were part of the coalition, IFP, now says, according to the Mail and Guardian, they are not; it is still a remarkable thing. The other four are the African Christian Democratic Party, Cope, the Freedom Front Plus, and the United Christian Democratic Party.

Remarkable is that Freedom Front Plus is one of them. It is a party to the right with many Afrikaner voters. As I understand it, those parties will still compete as separate parties. They just cooperate in the election.

On top of this we have DA, the biggest opposition party, Agang with Mamphela Ramphele and of course the populistic EFF, Julius Malema’s party. I am a bit worried though, that the opposition is too divided. I guess the ANC will use this as an argument. But the bottom line as I see it, is that people now are more open to criticise the ANC.

Nkandla-gate continues

Thuli Madonsela is Public Protector in South Africa. She has written a report about President Jacob Zumas private home stead: Nkandla. It is alleged that the state has used ZAR 215 000 000 to upgrade the security around Nkandla. Although President Zuma is the first citizen this is a lot of money and it seems as if other upgrades than security have been included. Mail and Guardian mentions

… a swimming pool, visitors' centre, amphitheatre, cattle kraal, marquee area, extensive paving and new houses for relocated relatives …

The Mail and Guardian further reports that

… there are good reasons for fearing that the security ministers who tried to interdict Madonsela earlier this month may be planning further litigation to block its release.

This is happening at the same time as we get reports that the “new kids on the block” – EFF and Agang according to the Mail and Guardian are

… are making serious inroads among the ANC's traditional support base.

Could the ANC maybe learn something from this? I suggest some humility and also more openness. More transparency! And the bottom line: Make the President pay his own swimming pool.

Ramphele jobbar på

Utan att det blir några store rubriker jobbar Mamphela Ramphele på. Men här och där kommenteras det. Förra veckan skrev Jared Sacks i Mali & Guardian under rubriken:

Biko would not vote for Ramphele

Biko och Ramphele var ju ett par. Kolumnisten menar att Ramphele nu är så långt borta från Black Consiousness att Biko, om han levt, hade varit en av hennes största kritiker.

Veckan därpå får Sacks kritik av två svarta redaktörer: Andile Mngxitama and Athi Joja. De är visserligen även de kritiska mot Ramphele men tycker att det inte passar sig att en vit liberal har synpunkter.

White liberals can't stand blacks who speak for themselves; the attack on Ramphele must be understood primarily in this context. She is a black woman who speaks her mind. We recognise this fact, notwithstanding our own fundamental disagreements with her.

Nättidningen Times Live menar dock att ungdomar inom ANC lyssnar på Ramphele. De är trötta på ANC politiker som kommer ut och träffar dem före valet, för att få deras röster men sedan inte levererar.

Frågan är om Ramphele kommer att leverera. Och om hon får chansen. Det ska i alla fall bli intressant att se hur det går i valet 2014. Med Agang, Cope och DA som motståndare till ett ANC med ett alltmer skamfilat rykte, kan det bli riktigt intressant.

Kommentar i SvD

Äldsta dottern uppmanade sin fader att kommentera en kolumn i Svenska Dagbladet. Journalisten Tor Billgren skriver om det nya politiska initiativet Agang. Visserligen stavar han Mamphela Rampheles förnamn fel, men det är ju inte så lätt. (ANC stavar hennes efternamn fel på sin hemsida, så det är tydligen fler som kan göra misstag av denna typ). Min kommentar kan läsas om man klickar här.

Agang * – ny politisk plattform i Sydafrika

I en tidigare bloggpost har jag skrivit om ett nytt politiskt initiativ i Sydafrika. Mamphela Ramphele bjöd idag in till, inte ett parti, men en partipolitisk plattform. Mail and Guardian rapporterar. Det har varit på gång ett tag. Ramphele är en mycket respekterad person i Sydafrika. Nu är det bara att hoppas att hennes initiativ går vägen. Det skulle behövas en verklig opposition till ANC.

I sitt tal skräder hon inte orden. Det är intressant att studera hennes retorik. Det handlar inte alls om etnicitet. Två gånger förekommer ordet ”black” men ordet ”poor” förekommer åtta gånger (+ en gång när det handlar om ”poor governance”. Det handlar alltså mer om relationen mellan fattiga och rika än om relationen mellan svarta och vita. Hon riktar framför allt in sin kritik på de som idag har politisk makt:

The impressive achievements of the past eighteen years are being undermined by poor governance at all levels of society. An unchecked culture of impunity and the abuse of power as well as public resources rob children, young people, rural and urban poor people of the fruits of freedom.

Hon angriper korruptionen, som hon beskriver som stöld. Impunity betyder straffrihet, d v s att de som ertappas med korruption inte blir bestraffade.

This is reflected by the seamless manner in which the party, the government, the president and the state have merged into a monolith of impunity.

Det står ganska mycket i hennes tal, som går att läsa här men de hon framför allt önskar är att återta de drömmar, som fans runt 1994. Hon menar att hennes generation är skyldiga det uppväxande släktet detta. Därmed understryker hon också vikten av att satsa på utbildning.

Det skulle vara så bra om detta initiativ ledde till framgång. Om ANC skulle få under 50 % av rösterna nästa val (vilket kanske är ett önsketänkande) skulle de behöva lyssna mer på andra rörelser och det skulle inte skada.

* Agang betyder "bygga" på seTswana och seSotho.