Tuesday, 14 January 2014

ANC under 50%?

An independent institute, Ipsos, has made a political survey in South Africa with interesting results. I have not seen many surveys before. This one was reported by TV the other day and the result, if general elections were to take place today, are the following (compared to 2008 and 2012)

A few things can be said about this:
1. ANC is decreasing and may have problems in achieving two thirds majority.

2. Only DA can compete with ANC.

3. EFF is more popular than Cope. (Which means that break aways from the ANC is more likely to succeed the first election after the break away. Look at UDM, which only holds one seat in the national assembly).

4. Agang has not managed to gather enough support.
Maybe others can get more information from the tables. News24 makes the following analysis:
Issues contributing to this include the Marikana shooting incident, the scandal around President Jacob Zuma’s R206m security upgrades to his Nkandla home in KwaZulu-Natal and to other ANC leadership issues.
It is going to be interesting. I don’t think the ruling party will fall under 50% but maybe get close.

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