ANC - watch out!

Regarding the elections in 2014, my belief is that the ANC is in for a hard time. Mandela is no present and the field is now wide open for people to vote according to their own conscious. This I have written before and already I see a number of signs that this is happening.

Ahmed Kathrada, one of Mandela’s fellow prisoners at Robben Island, spoke at Mandela’s funeral. I have not heard much of his speech. SABC and SAFM, the major TV and Radio broadcasters, are very loyal to the Government. But Kathrada did have some very serious things to say about the state of affairs, although he did it in a diplomatic manner. Times Live reports:

But perhaps the most powerful moment of all came when Kathrada, his voice quavering with grief, spoke of the gratitude South Africa should have for its "chapter nine" institutions, which safeguard democracy. Among these institutions is the office of the public protector, headed by Thuli Madonsela, which has been investigating the irregular expenditure of more than R200-million on Zuma's Nkandla estate. This line was not in his original speech.

It would have been interesting to have seen the face of Zuma when Kathrada said that.

So, I was quite surprised when I watched SABC 3 news tonight and they covered the NUMSA congress and the speech that suspended Cosatu General Secretary Zwelinzima Vavi held. He was received as a hero according to City Press. Cosatu says that he is not even allowed addressing any member union of the Cosatu. The interesting thing was how long part of the speech that SABC covered. He got almost a minute. That is quite a lot on TV. Just to recap: NUMSA is the largest trade union in Cosatu. Cosatu forms a tripartite alliance together with the ANC and the SACP (South African Communist Party). Vavi is not one of Zumas supporters. Cosatu has suspended him since he had an extra marital affair with an employee. Some analysts believe this was a political suspension. There is a rift in Cosatu and the group that is loyal to Zuma saw a chance to get rid of Vavi.

NUMSA, which is the union for metalworkers, has also opinions about the massacre at Marikana. They believe that it was planned and they blame, amongst others, Cyril Ramaphosa, vice president of the ANC and by many seen as the successor of Zuma. NUMSA also wants the National police commissioner, Riah Phiyega, to be suspended. According to BDLive NUMSA also wants Zuma himself to resign.

Another sign that ANC might get it tougher in the future is the new coalition: the Collective for Democracy. Although one of the five parties that were part of the coalition, IFP, now says, according to the Mail and Guardian, they are not; it is still a remarkable thing. The other four are the African Christian Democratic Party, Cope, the Freedom Front Plus, and the United Christian Democratic Party.

Remarkable is that Freedom Front Plus is one of them. It is a party to the right with many Afrikaner voters. As I understand it, those parties will still compete as separate parties. They just cooperate in the election.

On top of this we have DA, the biggest opposition party, Agang with Mamphela Ramphele and of course the populistic EFF, Julius Malema’s party. I am a bit worried though, that the opposition is too divided. I guess the ANC will use this as an argument. But the bottom line as I see it, is that people now are more open to criticise the ANC.